To develop and validate a prediction model for identifying non-prostate cancer (non-PCa) in biopsy-naive patients with PI-RADS category ≥ 4 lesions and PSA ≤ 20 ng/ml to avoid unnecessary biopsy.
Eligible patients who underwent transperineal biopsies at West China Hospital between 2018 and 2022 were included. The patients were randomly divided into training cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Logistic regression was used to screen for independent predictors of non-PCa, and a nomogram was constructed based on the regression coefficients. The discrimination and calibration were assessed by the C-index and calibration plots, respectively. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves (CIC) were applied to measure the clinical net benefit.
A total of 1580 patients were included, with 634 non-PCa. Age, prostate volume, prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and lesion zone were independent predictors incorporated into the optimal prediction model, and a corresponding nomogram was constructed ( https://nomogramscu.shinyapps.io/PI-RADS-4-5/ ). The model achieved a C-index of 0.931 (95% CI, 0.910-0.953) in the validation cohort. The DCA and CIC demonstrated an increased net benefit over a wide range of threshold probabilities. At biopsy-free thresholds of 60%, 70%, and 80%, the nomogram was able to avoid 74.0%, 65.8%, and 55.6% of unnecessary biopsies against 9.0%, 5.0%, and 3.6% of missed PCa (or 35.9%, 30.2% and 25.1% of foregone biopsies, respectively).
The developed nomogram has favorable predictive capability and clinical utility can help identify non-PCa to support clinical decision-making and reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies.
World journal of urology. 2024 Aug 23*** epublish ***
Hong Zeng, Yuntian Chen, Jinge Zhao, Jindong Dai, Yandong Xie, Minghao Wang, Qian Wang, Nanwei Xu, Junru Chen, Guangxi Sun, Hao Zeng, Pengfei Shen
Department of Urology, Institute of Urology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, China., Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China., Department of Urology, Institute of Urology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, China. ., Department of Urology, Institute of Urology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, China. ., Department of Urology, Institute of Urology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, China. .