Accurate prediction of cancer control outcomes in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients is important for counselling, follow-up planning, and selection of appropriate adjuvant trial designs.
To develop and externally validate a novel contemporary population-based model for predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival (CSM-FS) in surgically treated papillary RCC (papRCC) patients and to compare it with established risk categories (Leibovich 2018).
Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004-2019), we identified surgically treated papRCC patients (n = 3978). The population was randomly divided into development (50%, n = 1989) and external validation (50%, n = 1989) cohorts. Of the external validation cohort, 97% (n = 1930) of patients were included in a head-to-head comparison of the Leibovich 2018 risk categories addressing nonmetastatic patients.
Univariable Cox regression models tested the statistical significance in the prediction of CSM-FS. The most parsimonious model with the best validation metrics was selected as the multivariable nomogram. Accuracy, calibration, and decision curve analyses (DCAs) tested the Cox regression-based nomogram, as well as the Leibovich 2018 risk categories in the external validation cohort.
Age at diagnosis, grade, T stage, N stage, and M stage qualified for inclusion in the novel nomogram. In external validation, the accuracy of the novel nomogram was 0.83 at 5 yr and 0.80 at 10 yr. In nonmetastatic patients, 5- and 10-yr accuracy of the novel nomogram was 0.77 and 0.76, respectively. Conversely, 5- and 10-yr accuracy of the Leibovich 2018 risk categories was 0.70 and 0.66, respectively. The novel nomogram exhibited smaller departures from ideal predictions in calibration plots and higher net benefit in DCAs, when it was compared with the Leibovich 2018 risk categories. Limitations include the retrospective nature of the study, absence of a central pathological review, and inclusion of only North American patients.
The novel nomogram may represent a valuable clinical aid, when papRCC CSM-FS predictions are required.
We developed an accurate tool to predict death due to papillary kidney cancer in a North American population.
European urology focus. 2023 Apr 04 [Epub ahead of print]
Mattia Luca Piccinelli, Francesco Barletta, Stefano Tappero, Cristina Cano Garcia, Reha-Baris Incesu, Simone Morra, Lukas Scheipner, Zhe Tian, Stefano Luzzago, Francesco A Mistretta, Matteo Ferro, Fred Saad, Shahrokh F Shariat, Sascha Ahyai, Nicola Longo, Derya Tilki, Felix K H Chun, Carlo Terrone, Alberto Briganti, Ottavio de Cobelli, Gennaro Musi, Pierre I Karakiewicz
Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, IEO European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy; Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Division of Experimental Oncology/Unit of Urology, URI, Urological Research Institute, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, IRCCS Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy; Department of Surgical and Diagnostic Integrated Sciences (DISC), University of Genova, Genova, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, University Hospital Frankfurt, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Martini-Klinik Prostate Cancer Center, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Neurosciences, Science of Reproduction and Odontostomatology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Department of Urology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria., Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada., Department of Urology, IEO European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy; Department of Oncology and Haemato-Oncology, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy., Department of Urology, IEO European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, Milan, Italy., Department of Urology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA; Department of Urology, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA; Hourani Center of Applied Scientific Research, Al-Ahliyya Amman University, Amman, Jordan., Department of Urology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria., Department of Neurosciences, Science of Reproduction and Odontostomatology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy., Martini-Klinik Prostate Cancer Center, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Urology, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Urology, Koc University Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey., Department of Urology, University Hospital Frankfurt, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, Germany., Department of Urology, IRCCS Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy; Department of Surgical and Diagnostic Integrated Sciences (DISC), University of Genova, Genova, Italy., Division of Experimental Oncology/Unit of Urology, URI, Urological Research Institute, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.